East Africa’s crops are now at risk from flooding as the region transitions from drought to extreme rainfall linked to El Niño. The October 2026 Crop Monitor for Early Warning report highlights that prolonged dry conditions have already damaged crops in northern and western parts of the region. Now, the strengthening Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño are expected to bring unusually heavy rains from October to December.
The report warns that the shift from drought to flooding could disrupt food security. Farmers in areas like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia are facing dual challenges. Drought has already reduced crop yields, while the coming rains may damage remaining crops. The timing of the rains, which typically occur during the harvest season, could lead to significant losses.
This situation follows a pattern of climate extremes in East Africa. The region has experienced severe droughts in recent years, leading to food shortages and water scarcity. Now, the same area is preparing for the opposite extreme. Scientists note that El Niño events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. The combination of drought and flood risks underscores the growing vulnerability of agricultural systems in the region.
The impact of these climate shifts is already being felt. In some areas, farmers have lost up to 60% of their crops due to drought. With the arrival of heavy rains, there is a risk of further damage. The report calls for urgent support to help communities adapt to these changing conditions.
